01The three MPVs we can stand behind
This is the shortest table in the series, and the reason is structural rather than statistical. Malaysia's MPV market is supplied to an unusual degree by reconditioned imports, and imported supply does not behave the way a locally distributed model does — least of all when you are trying to measure it.
77.2%
Best five-year retention
Perodua Alza — joint-second across every segment we measured
3 of 39
MPV cohorts we could publish
Thirty-nine produced a curve; three cleared every gate
35.5 pts
The Alphard's three-to-five-year fall
The steepest two-year collapse anywhere in our data
| # | MPV | 5-year retention | Curve method | Price-ladder method | Listings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Perodua Alza | 77.2% | 80.8% | 73.6% | 3,320 |
| 2 | Toyota Alphard | 62.2% | 57.5% | 67.0% | 4,055 |
| 3 | Nissan Serena | 59.2% | 54.0% | 64.4% | 1,888 |
| MPV | Near-new ask | 5-year-old ask | Value lost per year | Annual road tax |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perodua Alza | RM60,409 | RM44,455 | RM3,191 | RM120 |
| Nissan Serena | RM109,823 | RM70,715 | RM7,822 | RM440 |
| Toyota Alphard | RM247,347 | RM165,627 | RM16,344 | RM834 |
02The Alphard cliff is the steepest fall in our data
The Alphard is the single most striking row in this whole series. At three years old our curve says it still holds 93.0% of its value. At five it says 57.5%. Nothing else we measured loses a third of its value inside a two-year window.
| Age | Estimated retention | Implied asking level |
|---|---|---|
| Three years | 93.0% | Close to its near-new price |
| Five years | 57.5% | Barely more than half |
| The window between | −35.5 points | The steepest in our corroborated set |
For a vehicle asking around RM247,000 near new, that window is worth roughly RM88,000. It is more than most Malaysians spend on a car outright, and it is concentrated in twenty-four months that a first owner rarely plans around.
The mechanism is supply, not build quality. The Alphard is one of the most heavily reconditioned-imported vehicles in the country: JPJ registered 17,601 Alphards in 2025 against a far smaller official channel, and across Toyota as a whole 20.7% of 2025 registrations — 26,668 vehicles — did not come through an official showroom. When the flow of used units is set by import economics and approved-permit policy rather than by domestic demand, asking prices at a given age move for reasons that have nothing to do with the car in your driveway.
03Why most of this segment cannot be measured
Thirty-nine MPV cohorts produced a curve and thirty-six of them are not in the table. The pattern behind that is worth more to a buyer than another three rows would have been.
A five-year retention figure compares what a nearly-new example asks against what a five-year-old example asks. It needs both ends to exist in real numbers — our guard requires at least four model-year cohorts and 200 listings on cars aged nought to six. Reconditioned imports do not reliably supply that end. Units arrive in batches governed by import economics, not as a continuous stream of new registrations, and several nameplates have no near-new presence at all.
| MPV | Listings | Aged 0–6 years | Why it is not ranked |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota Vellfire | 3,638 | 729 | Deep sample across 155 cohorts, but the fitted curve rests on our estimator's rate limit. A boundary is not a measurement. |
| Toyota Estima | 1,366 | 0 | Not a single listing aged six or under. There is no recent price level to measure a fall against. |
| Proton Exora | 1,256 | — | Cleared the gates, but produced no independent price ladder. Single-method only. |
| Toyota Innova | 1,141 | 184 | Below our near-new depth floor of 200 listings. |
| Nissan Grand Livina | 762 | 0 | Out of production; no near-new cohort exists. |
| Toyota Avanza | 690 | 38 | Near-new supply has effectively stopped. |
| Toyota Wish | 501 | 0 | Import-supplied and long out of production. |
| Mitsubishi Xpander | 490 | 490 | The opposite problem: only five model years exist, so a five-year claim would be extrapolation. |
The Vellfire is the one that stings
The Toyota Vellfire carries 3,638 listings across 155 model-year cohorts and a seventeen-year span — a deeper evidence base than any MPV we did publish, and deeper than most of our SUV table. It still fails, because part of its fitted curve rests on the lowest rate our estimator is permitted to return. That is the estimator hitting a wall, not the Vellfire holding its value perfectly, and we will not publish the difference as though it were a finding.
04The Alza is the only mainstream MPV we can measure
One locally assembled, mass-market seven-seater cleared every gate, and it happens to be one of the strongest retainers in the country.
At 77.2% the Perodua Alza ties the Honda City for second place in our market-wide table, behind only the Perodua Myvi. It does that on 3,320 listings across 112 model-year cohorts, and it does it while costing RM120 a year in road tax on a 1,500cc engine — a seventh of what the Alphard pays.
What sits behind that number:
- Continuous local supply. The Alza is built and sold here without interruption, so every age band exists in volume. That is what makes it measurable and also what keeps its buyer pool deep.
- A price point that stays liquid. At around RM60,400 near new and RM44,500 at five years, it sits in the band where Malaysian family buyers actually transact.
- A current safety record. ASEAN NCAP awarded the tested 2022 Alza 1.5 X five stars under its 2021–2025 protocol. That result belongs to the current generation and does not transfer backwards to the older Alzas that also sit inside our 112 fitted cohorts.
- Running costs that do not narrow the market. RM120 of road tax and Perodua's service network keep the cost of ownership low enough that demand does not thin out with age.
The Nissan Serena at 59.2% is the counter-example within the same body style: a larger, more expensive MPV whose used buyer pool is narrower, shedding RM7,822 a year against the Alza's RM3,191.
05What to actually do with this
Three rows is not much of a ranking, but the segment's shape gives clear guidance anyway.
- If you want a family MPV that keeps its money: the Perodua Alza, on both retention and running cost. It is the only mainstream seven-seater in Malaysia we can measure to our own standard, and it ranks near the top of the entire market.
- If you want an Alphard or Vellfire: buy at five years old rather than three. The Alphard's fall is concentrated in that window, and the second owner captures all of it.
- If you are looking at an Estima, Wish or Grand Livina: segment retention figures do not exist for these and cannot be produced honestly. Price the individual car on condition, service history, and parts availability.
- On any imported MPV: check the import and registration paperwork before you check anything else, and remember that its price level responds to permit policy and exchange rates, not only to the car.
- In every case: the model-level figure is a starting point. Year, variant, mileage, service history and condition decide the number that actually matters.
Frequently asked questions
Which MPV holds its value best in Malaysia?
In our 14 August 2026 analysis the Perodua Alza ranked first, retaining an estimated 77.2% of its value over five years, backed by 3,320 marketplace listings across 112 model-year cohorts. That places it joint-second across every segment we measured, alongside the Honda City. The Toyota Alphard followed at 62.2% and the Nissan Serena at 59.2%.
Why does the Toyota Alphard lose so much value between three and five years?
Our fitted curve puts the Alphard at 93.0% retention at three years and 57.5% at five — a 35.5-point fall, the steepest two-year collapse in our data. The likeliest mechanism is supply rather than the vehicle: the Alphard is one of Malaysia's most heavily reconditioned-imported models, and when used stock arrives on import economics rather than local demand, asking prices at a given age move for reasons unrelated to the car itself.
Why is the Toyota Vellfire not in the ranking?
It has the deepest evidence base of any MPV in our data — 3,638 listings across 155 model-year cohorts — but part of its fitted curve rests on the lowest rate our estimator is allowed to return. A curve sitting on a boundary is not a measurement of the vehicle, so we exclude it rather than publish the number it produces.
How much road tax does an MPV pay in Malaysia?
MPVs are assessed on the non-saloon scale, so it depends heavily on engine size. In our table the 1,500cc Perodua Alza pays RM120 a year, the 2,000cc Nissan Serena RM440, and the 2,493cc Toyota Alphard RM834. Variants differ, so treat these as the band your model falls into rather than as your exact bill.
Why can only three MPVs be ranked?
Because a five-year retention figure needs both a near-new price and a five-year-old price in real volume, and much of Malaysia's MPV supply arrives as reconditioned imports rather than as continuous new registrations. Several well-known nameplates — the Estima, the Wish, the Grand Livina — have no listings at all on cars aged six or under. Thirty-nine MPV cohorts produced a curve; three cleared every gate.
Sources and references
- Carvaly: Understanding your Carvaly valuation
- Carvaly Market Intelligence: Malaysia Used-Car Market Report · July 2026
- Paul Tan's Automotive News: One in Five Toyotas in Malaysia Is a Grey Import: the Recon Alphards and Vellfires Behind the Numbers
- Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry (MITI): Approved Permit Categories for Motor Vehicles
- JPJ Malaysia: Motor Vehicle Licence Rate Calculation Guide
- ASEAN NCAP: Perodua Alza (2022) Safety Rating
- data.gov.my: Car Registration Transactions
