MPV value retention league table

The 3 MPVs That Hold Their Value Best in Malaysia

The MPV is the segment where Malaysia's import economics collide hardest with measurement. Thirty-nine MPV cohorts produced a curve; three survived both of our methods. The Perodua Alza is joint-second in the entire market, and the Toyota Alphard falls further between years three and five than any car we have measured.

CVCarvaly EditorialUpdated 17 Aug 202612 min read
A family loading luggage into an unbadged seven-seater MPV beside a second, larger MPV in a Malaysian driveway
Conceptual editorial illustration of MPV value retention across model years; it does not depict a specific model, listing, price, or ranking.

01The three MPVs we can stand behind

This is the shortest table in the series, and the reason is structural rather than statistical. Malaysia's MPV market is supplied to an unusual degree by reconditioned imports, and imported supply does not behave the way a locally distributed model does — least of all when you are trying to measure it.

77.2%

Best five-year retention

Perodua Alza — joint-second across every segment we measured

3 of 39

MPV cohorts we could publish

Thirty-nine produced a curve; three cleared every gate

35.5 pts

The Alphard's three-to-five-year fall

The steepest two-year collapse anywhere in our data

#MPV5-year retentionCurve methodPrice-ladder methodListings
1Perodua Alza77.2%80.8%73.6%3,320
2Toyota Alphard62.2%57.5%67.0%4,055
3Nissan Serena59.2%54.0%64.4%1,888
Carvaly editorial analysis of the 14 August 2026 market snapshot. The headline figure is the midpoint of two independent estimates, both shown. Listings is the number of marketplace listings behind the model's fitted cohorts.
Perodua Alza77.2%
Toyota Alphard62.2%
Nissan Serena59.2%
Estimated share of the original asking price still held at five years old.
MPVNear-new ask5-year-old askValue lost per yearAnnual road tax
Perodua AlzaRM60,409RM44,455RM3,191RM120
Nissan SerenaRM109,823RM70,715RM7,822RM440
Toyota AlphardRM247,347RM165,627RM16,344RM834
Asking prices are weighted medians for cars aged 0–1 and 4–6 years in the same snapshot. Road tax is the JPJ non-saloon rate for Peninsular Malaysia, computed from the median engine displacement we observe for each model — variants differ, so read it as the band rather than as your bill.

02The Alphard cliff is the steepest fall in our data

The Alphard is the single most striking row in this whole series. At three years old our curve says it still holds 93.0% of its value. At five it says 57.5%. Nothing else we measured loses a third of its value inside a two-year window.

AgeEstimated retentionImplied asking level
Three years93.0%Close to its near-new price
Five years57.5%Barely more than half
The window between−35.5 pointsThe steepest in our corroborated set
Curve-method retention at three and five years. Both figures come from the same fitted curve, so the comparison is internally consistent.

For a vehicle asking around RM247,000 near new, that window is worth roughly RM88,000. It is more than most Malaysians spend on a car outright, and it is concentrated in twenty-four months that a first owner rarely plans around.

The mechanism is supply, not build quality. The Alphard is one of the most heavily reconditioned-imported vehicles in the country: JPJ registered 17,601 Alphards in 2025 against a far smaller official channel, and across Toyota as a whole 20.7% of 2025 registrations — 26,668 vehicles — did not come through an official showroom. When the flow of used units is set by import economics and approved-permit policy rather than by domestic demand, asking prices at a given age move for reasons that have nothing to do with the car in your driveway.

03Why most of this segment cannot be measured

Thirty-nine MPV cohorts produced a curve and thirty-six of them are not in the table. The pattern behind that is worth more to a buyer than another three rows would have been.

A five-year retention figure compares what a nearly-new example asks against what a five-year-old example asks. It needs both ends to exist in real numbers — our guard requires at least four model-year cohorts and 200 listings on cars aged nought to six. Reconditioned imports do not reliably supply that end. Units arrive in batches governed by import economics, not as a continuous stream of new registrations, and several nameplates have no near-new presence at all.

MPVListingsAged 0–6 yearsWhy it is not ranked
Toyota Vellfire3,638729Deep sample across 155 cohorts, but the fitted curve rests on our estimator's rate limit. A boundary is not a measurement.
Toyota Estima1,3660Not a single listing aged six or under. There is no recent price level to measure a fall against.
Proton Exora1,256Cleared the gates, but produced no independent price ladder. Single-method only.
Toyota Innova1,141184Below our near-new depth floor of 200 listings.
Nissan Grand Livina7620Out of production; no near-new cohort exists.
Toyota Avanza69038Near-new supply has effectively stopped.
Toyota Wish5010Import-supplied and long out of production.
Mitsubishi Xpander490490The opposite problem: only five model years exist, so a five-year claim would be extrapolation.
MPVs that produced a curve but did not reach the published table. None of this indicates weak resale — the Vellfire and Estima are famous for holding value.

The Vellfire is the one that stings

The Toyota Vellfire carries 3,638 listings across 155 model-year cohorts and a seventeen-year span — a deeper evidence base than any MPV we did publish, and deeper than most of our SUV table. It still fails, because part of its fitted curve rests on the lowest rate our estimator is permitted to return. That is the estimator hitting a wall, not the Vellfire holding its value perfectly, and we will not publish the difference as though it were a finding.

04The Alza is the only mainstream MPV we can measure

One locally assembled, mass-market seven-seater cleared every gate, and it happens to be one of the strongest retainers in the country.

At 77.2% the Perodua Alza ties the Honda City for second place in our market-wide table, behind only the Perodua Myvi. It does that on 3,320 listings across 112 model-year cohorts, and it does it while costing RM120 a year in road tax on a 1,500cc engine — a seventh of what the Alphard pays.

What sits behind that number:

  • Continuous local supply. The Alza is built and sold here without interruption, so every age band exists in volume. That is what makes it measurable and also what keeps its buyer pool deep.
  • A price point that stays liquid. At around RM60,400 near new and RM44,500 at five years, it sits in the band where Malaysian family buyers actually transact.
  • A current safety record. ASEAN NCAP awarded the tested 2022 Alza 1.5 X five stars under its 2021–2025 protocol. That result belongs to the current generation and does not transfer backwards to the older Alzas that also sit inside our 112 fitted cohorts.
  • Running costs that do not narrow the market. RM120 of road tax and Perodua's service network keep the cost of ownership low enough that demand does not thin out with age.

The Nissan Serena at 59.2% is the counter-example within the same body style: a larger, more expensive MPV whose used buyer pool is narrower, shedding RM7,822 a year against the Alza's RM3,191.

05What to actually do with this

Three rows is not much of a ranking, but the segment's shape gives clear guidance anyway.

  • If you want a family MPV that keeps its money: the Perodua Alza, on both retention and running cost. It is the only mainstream seven-seater in Malaysia we can measure to our own standard, and it ranks near the top of the entire market.
  • If you want an Alphard or Vellfire: buy at five years old rather than three. The Alphard's fall is concentrated in that window, and the second owner captures all of it.
  • If you are looking at an Estima, Wish or Grand Livina: segment retention figures do not exist for these and cannot be produced honestly. Price the individual car on condition, service history, and parts availability.
  • On any imported MPV: check the import and registration paperwork before you check anything else, and remember that its price level responds to permit policy and exchange rates, not only to the car.
  • In every case: the model-level figure is a starting point. Year, variant, mileage, service history and condition decide the number that actually matters.

Frequently asked questions

Which MPV holds its value best in Malaysia?

In our 14 August 2026 analysis the Perodua Alza ranked first, retaining an estimated 77.2% of its value over five years, backed by 3,320 marketplace listings across 112 model-year cohorts. That places it joint-second across every segment we measured, alongside the Honda City. The Toyota Alphard followed at 62.2% and the Nissan Serena at 59.2%.

Why does the Toyota Alphard lose so much value between three and five years?

Our fitted curve puts the Alphard at 93.0% retention at three years and 57.5% at five — a 35.5-point fall, the steepest two-year collapse in our data. The likeliest mechanism is supply rather than the vehicle: the Alphard is one of Malaysia's most heavily reconditioned-imported models, and when used stock arrives on import economics rather than local demand, asking prices at a given age move for reasons unrelated to the car itself.

Why is the Toyota Vellfire not in the ranking?

It has the deepest evidence base of any MPV in our data — 3,638 listings across 155 model-year cohorts — but part of its fitted curve rests on the lowest rate our estimator is allowed to return. A curve sitting on a boundary is not a measurement of the vehicle, so we exclude it rather than publish the number it produces.

How much road tax does an MPV pay in Malaysia?

MPVs are assessed on the non-saloon scale, so it depends heavily on engine size. In our table the 1,500cc Perodua Alza pays RM120 a year, the 2,000cc Nissan Serena RM440, and the 2,493cc Toyota Alphard RM834. Variants differ, so treat these as the band your model falls into rather than as your exact bill.

Why can only three MPVs be ranked?

Because a five-year retention figure needs both a near-new price and a five-year-old price in real volume, and much of Malaysia's MPV supply arrives as reconditioned imports rather than as continuous new registrations. Several well-known nameplates — the Estima, the Wish, the Grand Livina — have no listings at all on cars aged six or under. Thirty-nine MPV cohorts produced a curve; three cleared every gate.

Sources and references

CV

Carvaly Editorial

Prepared from cited Malaysian market and regulatory sources.

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